Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.370403 0.422996 0.480101 0.546672 0.622113 0.704916 0.802661
2025-08-24 0.291670 0.360812 0.441735 0.543298 0.667230 0.813414 0.998825
2025-08-31 0.232895 0.310022 0.406697 0.536460 0.705768 0.918853 1.207091
2025-09-07 0.196504 0.280081 0.391733 0.551209 0.772520 1.068106 1.492157
2025-09-14 0.157532 0.239656 0.356219 0.532810 0.792545 1.159356 1.715346
2025-09-21 0.130682 0.211388 0.332642 0.526741 0.828114 1.276328 1.991146
2025-09-28 0.108600 0.186208 0.309258 0.516743 0.855725 1.384899 2.269867
2025-10-05 0.096376 0.174430 0.304509 0.534623 0.928589 1.571498 2.694321
2025-10-12 0.083192 0.158616 0.290474 0.534704 0.971933 1.716202 3.070638
2025-10-19 0.073308 0.146842 0.281348 0.541512 1.027231 1.887387 3.514068
2025-10-26 0.065966 0.138463 0.276873 0.555754 1.097378 2.092758 4.044098
2025-11-02 0.056064 0.123276 0.257153 0.538015 1.105115 2.185963 4.380881
2025-11-09 0.046437 0.107177 0.233617 0.510230 1.091672 2.242272 4.665173
2025-11-16 0.040064 0.096857 0.220171 0.500934 1.114089 2.371397 5.111381
2025-11-23 0.034565 0.087445 0.207082 0.490273 1.132106 2.494351 5.563042
2025-11-30 0.031352 0.082780 0.203714 0.500600 1.197212 2.723979 6.270974
2025-12-07 0.026726 0.073724 0.188691 0.481613 1.193591 2.805702 6.669714
2025-12-14 0.023465 0.067493 0.179329 0.474525 1.216446 2.948964 7.225863
2025-12-21 0.020509 0.061466 0.169413 0.464366 1.230273 3.073286 7.755180
2025-12-28 0.019107 0.059460 0.169463 0.479661 1.309430 3.361250 8.710669
2026-01-04 0.017194 0.055588 0.163881 0.479131 1.348011 3.556161 9.465066
2026-01-11 0.015738 0.052785 0.160758 0.484816 1.403888 3.801433 10.378417
2026-01-18 0.014665 0.050949 0.160074 0.497290 1.480152 4.108723 11.491753